The daring drone attacks launched by Ukraine against various Russian air bases on June 1, 2025, just before the second face-to-face meeting between the two countries in Istanbul, should be carefully evaluated from multiple perspectives. As will be recalled, the first meeting between the two countries also took place in Istanbul in 2022.
Various media outlets report that the operation, called "Spider Web," was carried out by more than 100 drones against various air bases in Russia's remote regions of the Ukrainian border. The Russian Defense Ministry announced in a brief statement that the operation, which was described as a "terrorist attack," was carried out using FPV UAVs on military air bases in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions; that the attacks on the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions were repelled; that some aircraft caught fire as a result of the launch of FPV UAVs from the immediate vicinity of airports in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions; that the fires were extinguished; that there were no casualties among military and civilian personnel and that some of the participants in the attacks were detained.
The BBC reported, citing Ukrainian sources, that 41 strategic bombers were damaged and at least 13 destroyed. In other sources, it is stated that a total of 41 planes were destroyed, most of which were built in Soviet days and are now out of production, so they cannot be easily replaced anytime soon. In this context, it is stressed that the worst damage was done at the Belaya Long-Range Aviation base in Irkutsk Oblast, Siberia. It is claimed in the reports that destroyed planes include several Tu-95, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 long-range strike bombers that can deliver Russian nuclear bombs to targets thousands of kilometers away, and the destruction of Tu-160s would severely degrade Russia’s cruise missile strike capability and nuclear deterrent.
While some media sources praise Ukraine's successful operation, there are also criticisms about why such valuable Russian strategic bombers are not kept in closed hangars. Addressing these criticisms, Top War, an online military review published in Russia, points out the provisions of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3) between Russia and the United States. It emphasizes that one of the key elements of the treaty is transparency, which mandates that strategic bombers must be parked in open areas so that their numbers and status can be verified through satellite reconnaissance or inspections. This rule aims to reduce insecurity risks and prevent unexpected escalations. Article X of the treaty stipulates that, "Each party undertakes ... not to use concealment measures that impede verification, by national technical means of verification, of compliance with the provisions of this Treaty."
The most crucial point to remember in this context is the importance of the New START-3 Treaty in terms of global security. It is a well-known fact that nearly all arms control regimes in Europe have unfortunately lost their importance, especially after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014, and that it is no longer possible to talk about the existence of credible conventional arms control regimes either in the OSCE region or on the Eurasian scale. In this context, the developments in the nuclear field are, to say the least, also worrisome.
It is worth noting that the U.S. officially withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on Aug. 2, 2019, and the Russian Federation also announced that the treaty had ended. It is known that nuclear weapon states of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) assert that deterrence continues to play a role in preserving regional and international security. Meanwhile, many non-nuclear weapon states of the NPT have expressed their concern about the new nuclear arms race and the adverse developments in the nuclear disarmament field.
In such a dark environment, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is the last remaining bilateral arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia. It legally limits the number of long-range nuclear weapons both countries can deploy. The treaty was negatively affected by the Russia-Ukraine war and U.S. support for Ukraine led President Vladimir Putin to suspend Russia’s participation in New START in February 2023, although he pledged to continue abiding by the treaty’s limits. The U.S. responded by ending Russia’s ability to monitor U.S. nuclear sites, revoking inspectors’ visas and denying clearance for Russian aircraft in U.S airspace. The U.S. State Department has declared that Russia cannot be said to be in full compliance with the New START treaty. However, it did not undertake any major activities outside the treaty in 2024.
As mentioned in credible online sources, Russia suspended, but did not cancel, its participation in the START treaty after sanctions were imposed on it in 2022. Still, it has kept the door open to restarting and reimposing all the Cold War-era security agreements, should a cease-fire agreement be reached with Ukraine and its Western allies. While the mutual inspections of nuclear facilities were suspended in August 2022, Russia is still sticking to the provision that Russia keep its fleet of nuclear-enabled long-distance bombers visible to satellites by parking them out in the open on airfields, albeit very distant from the Ukrainian front line.
New START is set to expire on Feb. 5, 2026. It is unclear what will happen after New START expires. The treaty's demise risks opening the door to new nuclear proliferation.
As we are going through a sensitive period in terms of nuclear arms control, it seems highly probable that Ukraine’s destruction of Russian heavy bomber aircraft, as mentioned in the New START Treaty, thousands of kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border, will have negative strategic consequences. It is impossible to make definitive predictions about how Russia will respond to this attack. However, this risky behavior will likely not go unanswered. The consequences of Ukraine’s determined steps to escalate the war are of great concern not only to Ukraine itself but also to all of Europe, NATO, and most importantly to the NATO countries neighboring Ukraine.
It is also noteworthy that the U.K. announced a few days ago that it will build new nuclear-powered attack submarines, prepare its army for a potential war in Europe and become “a battle-ready, armor-clad nation.” Recent developments give the impression that the drums are beating for a large-scale war. These developments, which come at a time when Türkiye is continuing its best efforts for peace with tremendous goodwill, do not seem to bode well. Despite all these negativities, it is becoming increasingly crucial for Türkiye to call on all parties to exercise common sense and to tirelessly continue its well-intentioned peace efforts.
